Main Card Bouts
Randy Couture (-190) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria (+150)
A couple of years ago this would have been the marquee “champion vs. champion” match up between Pride FC and UFC heavyweight champs. Now, it’s a fight that has serious implications for the future of both fighters in their careers. With the next shot at the heavyweight title presumably going to the winner, after Shane Carwin vs. Brock Lesner in November, the loser may have to face the possibility that retirement might be the best option. Couture, at 45, has one fight left on his UFC contract, and Nogueria has been through some of the most famous wars in MMA history and has looked battle worn at just 33.
Breakdown: This is a fight that harkens back to the old days of style vs. style; a world class wrestler facing a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter. In the old days, this fight would have been decided before it even began. Wrestler gets the takedown, BJJ fighter grabs a hold and lands a submission, fight over. However, it’s probably not going to play out like that in this one. Couture has exhibited great submission defense in both MMA and straight grappling matches, taking world champion BJJ grappler Ronaldo Souza to a draw, and Nogueria has serious takedowns and wrestling defense on top of his superior jiu-jitsu. With it unlikely that Couture is going just manhandle Nogueria on the ground or that “Minotauro” is going to effortlessly sub Couture, it seems this fight may be decided on the feet. Nogueria has exceptional boxing skills, despite not showing them in his UFC 92 match-up with Frank Mir, and Couture has shown that he is no slouch on the feet, but is susceptible to being hit with big shots. Should be a great one either way.
Pick: This is a tough one to call with almost everything on either side being negated or equaled by the other. Couture looked great against Brock Lesner until he got dropped late in the 2nd and Nogueria basically showed up in zombie form against Mir (although he was rumored to be suffering from a staph infection at the time). I’d look for a feeling out process on the feet, Couture clinching against the fence, looks for/hits a takedown, pressures Nogueria on the floor, referee stand-up, lather-rinse-repeat for 15 minutes. Randy Couture by unanimous decision.
Keith Jardine (-140) vs. Thiago Silva (+110)
Breakdown: A match-up of strikers coming off high profile losses, this one has potential for serious fireworks. Despite having a BJJ black belt, Silva loves to brawl on the feet and pretty much the only time we see Jardine on the ground he’s lying there borderline unconscious (save the Forrest Griffin fight). The problem with both of their styles of fighting is that they have shown somewhat suspect chins in their UFC appearances. This could come down to who has the better gameplan coming in to the cage on fight night. The advantage here has to go Jardine, training under the mastermind Greg Jackson behind champion Georges St. Pierre and (former champ) Rashad Evans.
Pick: Jardine is extremely awkward when he fights, but it is also extremely successful. Look for a lot of crazy looking leg kicks from Jardine to frustrate Silva early and lure him to the inside where Jardine can land a big shot. The fight finishes on the deck with ref pulling Jardine off his opponent. Keith Jardine by TKO – Round 2
Chris Leben (-145) vs. Jake Rosholt (+115)
Breakdown: The bad boy from season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter, Leben, steps up to face the former All-American wrestler Rosholt in what seems (to me at least) to be a fairly straight forward fight. Leben possesses some brutal knockout power, decent ground skills, and a serious chin to boot. Rosholt, an import from the WEC, looked absolutely horrific on the feet against Nissen Osterneck, being soundly beaten before scoring a takedown after an awful spinning backfist and ultimately winning by TKO, and fell victim to a guillotine choke one minute into his UFC debut. This tells me that although he may have a great chin, his striking and submission defense is not quite up to his wrestling ability. Leben is too experienced and hits too hard for Rosholt to fight like he did against Osterneck.
Pick: If Rosholt can score a takedown we could have an interesting fight on our hands. I don’t see that happening though. Rosholt is young, he’ll have a decent career once he hones his skills some more. This fight is too big of a step right now though. Chris Leben by TKO – Round 1
Nate Marquardt (-190) vs. Demian Maia (+150)
Breakdown: Don’t let the line on this one fool you; this match is a lot closer than oddsmakers believe. Maia is undefeated for a reason; that reason mostly being that he may have the best jiu-jitsu in the UFC. The line has skewed towards Marquardt because we have yet to see Maia really have to stand up with his opponent while Nate “The Great” has exceptional stand-up skills. Defeated only by the middleweight champ Anderson Silva and by Thales Leites in a fight in which multiple fouls cost him a decision while in the UFC, Marquardt takes this fight knowing that the winner will most likely get a shot at Silva after Dan Henderson gets his second crack at “the Spider”.
Despite training full time with former Pride champ Wanderlei Silva at Wand Fight Team, Maia is at a serious disadvantage on the feet. Whenever he has faced this problem before, Maia has been able to score a takedown or pull guard and take the fight over on the ground. However, Marquardt won’t be so easy to get to ground. On top of great wrestling, he holds a BJJ black belt and shown good submission defense. This could be the deciding factor in the fight; can Nate fight off Maia takedowns/guard pulls and force him to strike with him?
Pick: This fight could go either way. If it hits the floor, Maia is a wizard and definitely has the skills needed to submit his fellow black belt. However, if it stays on the feet, the advantage is definitely for Marquardt. That said, I believe “The Great” is too big and too skilled to fall into Maia’s submission web and has the power to test Maia’s chin. Plus he has Greg Jackson in his corner. I heard he comes up with pretty good gameplans. Nate Marquardt by unanimous decision
Brandon Vera (-190) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (+150)
Breakdown: Vera was one of the UFC’s hottest prospects just a couple years ago with a great mix of muay thai striking and jiu-jitsu grappling. Since then his career has really gone sideways and he has struggled to put together any wins of consequence. The one time heavyweight is now trying to work his way up the very talent rich light-heavyweight ladder. He takes on IFL and Ultimate Fighter season 8 alum Krzysztof Soszynski in a fight that could determine who is a future contender, and who will most likely be a gatekeeper for the foreseeable future. “The Polish Experiment” has strung together five straight wins (3-0 UFC), most recently knocking out Andre Gusmao in May. His stand up, while effective, has looked stiff but he makes up for by sporting a decent ground game to fall back on if he is on the short end of the striking game.
For Vera, this fight will most likely be decided based on his mental status heading in. He has raised questions about his heart in his performances against Fabricio Werdum and Keith Jardine where he basically conceded defeat when he was rocked. If he is content to simply turtle up and ride out a referee stoppage anytime he gets hurt or pushed in a fight, he’s never going to champion of one division, let alone two as he predicted early in his career. Soszynski on the other hand really has nothing to lose in this fight. A win means he keeps getting increasingly talented competition and a chance to work towards a title shot. A loss and he pretty much stays right where he is right now; smack dab in the middle of the LHW division.
Pick: This really depends on which Brandon Vera shows up. If we see the “old” Vera that was knocking out Justin Eilers and Frank Mir, it could be a relatively easy night for “The Truth”. If we see the fighter who struggled with a mid-level Keith Jardine and a bloated MW in Reese Andy, Krzysztof could steal this one away. That said, look for Vera to return to form and make a stride towards once again reaching that elite level. Brandon Vera by unanimous decision
Undercard Bouts
No Breakdowns here, only picks (sorry, I guess)
Chris Tuchscherer vs. Gabrial Gonzaga - Gonzaga by submission - Round 1
Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson - Aaron Simpson by TKO - Round 1
Mike Russow vs. Justin McCully - Mike Russow by unanimous decision
Todd Duffee vs. Tim Hague - Todd Duffee by KO - Round 1
Mark Munoz vs. Nick Cantone - Mark Munoz by unanimous decision
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