Main Card Bouts
(Fight odds according to Bodog Sportsbook)
Nate Diaz (-230) vs. Melvin Guillard (+190)
A main event in name and placement only, Diaz/Guillard is the ultimate match up of underachieving lightweights. Guillard is coming in on a 3 fight win streak, despite the fact that he is widely believed to have been gifted a decision against Glesion Tibau in his last fight. Diaz on the other hand is riding a 2 fight losing streak and is danger of being shown the door by the UFC brass. I get the overwhelming feeling that the UFC was banking on alot more hype behind this one just based on each fighter's history as a brash, smack talking hot-heads. If that is what they were hoping for, they must be horribly disappointed. The reception for this match up has been lukewarm at best and the hype associated with the bout is mostly questions about how it got top billing over top lightweight contender, Gray Maynard, and fan favorite, Roger Huerta. I hate to admit it, but I'm with the crowd on this one. There is very little interest in this fight because there is nothing really at stake for either fighter. Diaz may be cut if he loses, but it is unlikely because he is a former "Ultimate Fighter" season winner and the UFC is pretty faithful to those fighters. As for Guillard, a win is a win, but it does very little for his title hopes because Diaz is nowhere near being considered top competition at this moment.
Breakdown: The UFC indulged Diaz's request to put him against someone who will stand and trade with him, but don't expect the kind of fireworks that Diaz wants. Melvin hits hard for a lightweight, maybe the hardest in the UFC's lightweight division. Diaz has good hands as well, but much like his older brother Nick Diaz, he is a volume puncher and tends to use his length to frustrate opponents without ever really hurting them. The problem for each of these fighters is an aspect of the ground game. Guillard has a powerful takedown game for when he gets in trouble, but has close to non-existent submission defense. The opposite is true for Diaz; he is a brown belt in BJJ under Cesar Gracie, but gets taken down at will and a fighter with heavy top control and good sub defense can negate anything Diaz will throw at him. Taking these factors into account, the question becomes can Guillard put Diaz out before it hits the mat or will Diaz be able to weather an early storm and trap Melvin in a sub before the lights go out?
Pick: This is pretty straight forward in my mind. Guillard is a home run hitter but he is also extremely reckless when things don't go his way immediately. Diaz is the perfect fighter to take Guillard out of his game quickly and force him to make a fatal error. Nate jabs alot to get Melvin upset, Guillard shoots in very awkwardly, leaves his neck exposed for Diaz to slip his arm in for the quick choke forcing the tap shortly after. Nate Diaz by submission (guillotine choke) - Round 1
Gray Maynard (-365) vs. Roger Huerta (+285)
Breakdown: As a warning to fighters who plan to bail on their UFC contract to pursue outside interests; don't, because the UFC will punish you in the worst way possible. Such is the fate of "El Matador" Roger Huerta against Gray Maynard. Shunning the company that wanted to make him their poster boy for expansion into Mexico, Huerta receives the non-enviable gift of the undefeated contender Maynard as his UFC swan song. Make no bones about it, the UFC knew exactly what they were doing when they put this fight together. Huerta has a serious problem with staying on his feet when his opponent has no intention in engaging in a brawl like he wants. Case and point, the Clay Guida and Kenny Florian fights. So who better to give their soon to be ex-employee than the one of the most powerful wrestlers in the division. Nice right? When Maynard gets you down to the floor, you stay there until either he or the referee wants you to stand back up. If Huerta can't find his range or land anything early, he gets extremely frustrated and starts chasing and winging wild strikes, both of which will make it even easier for Maynard to take him down.
Pick: Don't expect too much from this fight. This is a match up that is more or less a fight to showcase Maynard against a big name fighter, regardless of status in the division. The UFC doesn't want to Huerta to simply go out with an "L", they want him to be embarassed in the process. Dana White should get his wish and Maynard could be looking at the next shot at the lightweight title after this is over. Gray Maynard by (lopsided) unanimous decision
Carlos Condit (-500) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+300)
Breakdown: The former WEC welterweight champion, Condit, gets a second chance to show that he wasn't just a big fish in a small pond in this fight. "The Natural Born Killer" lost a very close decision to possible #1 contender Martin Kampmann in his last bout, an instant Fight of the Year candidate. It's no accident that Condit is a top 10 welterweight; he's is extremely talented in all aspects of the game and has the killer instinct of a champion. If there is one flaw in his game it is that he is susceptable to being taken down. The problem is, if you don't have good submission defense or top control, he can sweep and end up in dominant position to look for a finish. I'll be the first to admit I know very little about Ellenberger, but a quick glance at his Fight Finder shows that he can struggle against higher level competition like Jay Hieron and UFC greenhorn, Rick Story. The oddsmakers must notice the same thing, which would explain why he is a 3-1 dog in the fight.
Pick: Condit needs this win badly if he wants to stay anywhere near title contention in a stacked welterweight division. I'd expect him to fight as such and deliver a performance that would make Woody Harrelson and Oliver Stone a fan of the "Natural Born Killer". Carlos Condit by TKO - Round 2
Nate Quarry (-260) vs. Tim Credeur (+200)
Breakdown: The requisite match up of "Ultimate Fighter" veterans for a UFN card brings an interesting match up of middleweights. It's been a (pardon the pun) rocky road for Nate "Rock" Quarry since being knocked stiff in his title fight against Rich Franklin. He won one of the more bizzare fights in recent memory against Kalib Starnes at UFC 83 before being added to Demian Maia's submission reel at UFC 91. Injuries have plagued Quarry recently and really prevented him for getting any momentum to regain contender status. Since his stint on the "Ultimate Fighter" season 7, Tim Credeur has shown a surprisingly well rounded game. His problem seems to be that he has what could be informally called the "Jorge Gurgel complex". The symptoms of this complex are generally a refusal to utilize the skills associated with a BJJ black belt in favor of a stand up brawl and can result in Fight of the Night bonuses and walking papers from the UFC. Credeur has to decide if he wants a lump sum payment for a great fight and a possible loss, or the financial security of a contract by doing what he needs to do to win. On the feet, Quarry probably wins; on the ground, Credeur probably wins. It really depends on which path Credeur decides to take.
Pick: Quarry claims he was injured in his fight with Maia, which probably had nothing to do with him getting choked out in 90 seconds, but could explain his up and down performances of late. When he is healthy, "Rock" can deliver some devastating power, no matter how awful his form may be. If Credeur decides to engage in a stand up fight, I'd favor Nate based on him being a more experienced striker. Unfortunately for Credeur, he's probably going to do just that and Quarry is going to punish him en route to a early finish. Nate Quarry by TKO - Round 1
Undercard Bouts
Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann - Steve Cantwell by submission (armbar) - Round 1
Mike Pyle vs. Chris Wilson - Mike Pyle by split decision
Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce - Brock Larson by submission (guillotine choke) - Round 2
C.B. Dollaway vs. Jay Silva - Jay Silva by KO - Round 1
Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover - Sam Stout by split decision
(edit: as per Dana White's Twitter, Nover had a seizure in locker room and will not fight tonight. That sucks, this was probably going to be Fight of the Night.)
Jeremy Stephens vs. Justin Bucholz - Jeremy Stephens by TKO - Round 3
Ryan Jensen vs. Steve Steinbeiss - Ryan Jensen by unanimous decision
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