Let's get the big boy of the weekend out of the way now...
Floyd Mayweather Jr. (-350) vs. Juan Manuel Marquez (+275)
The flamboyant welterweight champion, Mayweather, is back, and his return gift is the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Marquez. Obviously, Golden Boy Promotions has gone all out trying to hype this match up, but the buzz surrounding the bout has been somewhat subdued outside of the boxing community. Rumors that event organizers have been struggling to sell tickets have been swirling and there is an expected to be a drop inPPV numbers as a result of the UFC's event the same night. Mayweather (39-0) returns to ring action after 2 years of inactivity, and Marquez (50-4-1) is coming off a 9th round stoppage of Juan Diaz in his last bout.
Breakdown: "Pretty Boy" Floyd is undefeated for a reason. His hand speed, counter punching ability to slip and evade punches is a wonder to watch in the ring. However, this fighting style has earned him the label of "boring" on occasion. Floyd makes no bones about it, he says it all the time in interviews; he is a boxer, plain and simple. You're not going to see him go into the ring and brawl just for the fans' enjoyment. He is there to win and collect his check, that's it.Mayweather does have some good knockout power, but it is more likely that you will see him stick and move for 90% of a fight before he lands the big punch.
Marquez is a counter puncher as well, but he has been known to get sucked into a brawl from time to time. In the Juan Diaz fight, he threw more punches in a 9 rounder than he had ever thrown in a fight before. Sure, he is one of the few men to ever put pound-for-pound king MannyPacquiao in danger, and arguably won the second meeting, but Marquez tends to be a slow starter. He tends to give away rounds early before making adjustments to his game in the later rounds. The problem is, againstMayweather , he's not going to be able to counter effectively, and the adjustment to that won't be of much help either. That's Floyd's game, and he's got the reach and speed advantage to keep it that way. If Marquez attempts to brawl his way inside on Floyd, he's going to get planted like RickyHatton did.
Do I think he's going to do that? No, Nacho Beristain is too good of a trainer to allow Marquez to do that. However, I am concerned that if he does start slow in the opening rounds against Floyd, it is going to be complete domination from the "Pretty Boy".
Pick: Marquez has never fought at welterweight before and he was already going to be at a speed disadvantage to Mayweather before the weight gain. I'm a bit nervous making my pick considering there are rumors out Floyd's camp that he is getting beat on in sparring and all of the distractions caused by his trainer, Roger Mayweather's assault charges. Problem is, Beristain has publicly claimed, as recently as last week, that Marquez's speed isn't where it needs to be. If that's true, it's going to be a long night for the Mexican superstar and a lopsided decision for Floyd's 40th win. Floyd Mayweather Jr. by unanimous decision
Undercard Bout: Chris John def. Rocky Juarez by KO before the 10th
UFC 103: Franklin vs. Belfort
Main Card Bouts
Rich Franklin (-140) vs. Vitor Belfort (+110)
Never say Dana White doesn't listen to the fans. As a result of the fans displeasure at a Rich Franklin vs. Dan Henderson rematch, the UFC scrapped the match and re-signed former champion Vitor Belfort to replace Henderson. Rich Franklin has been one of the most consistent fighters in UFC history, only losing to the upper echelon of fighters in all of MMA. In his career, Franklin has only been defeated by current middleweight champ Anderson Silva(x2), current light-heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, and number 1 middleweight contender and former PRIDE champion, Dan Henderson. Belfort, on the other hand, has had one of the more erratic careers in MMA history. Nicknamed "The Phenom, Belfort has absolutely obliterated fighters like Matt Lindland and Wanderlei Silva, but has also had serious letdowns against Randy Couture, Tito Ortiz and Alistair Overeem(x2). The major question surrounding this fight is if we will see the "old" Vitor Belfort back in the octagon.
Breakdown: Anyone who saw Belfort's last 2 fights in Affliction can attest to the brutal power and hand speed "The Phenom" possesses. His boxing is absolutely top notch, and he is a BJJ black belt if he is taken down. Franklin is slouch on the feet, but he does have the propencity to being being tagged with a big shot. Against a visibly gassed Wanderlei Silva in his last fight, Franklin was rocked by several shots that wouldn't exactly be considered technical. If Franklin can establish range and keep Vitor at bay with jabs and leg kicks, he's got a great chance. However, if Belfort can use his superior hand speed and technique on the inside, it could be lights out for "Ace".
Pick: Trepidation is the word of choice on this one. Franklin is not going to be faster or more technical than Belfort, which will be his downfall in this one. Belfort is not going to stand in the pocket and wing bombs like Wanderlei; his boxing is too evolved for that. Expect it to take a few minutes for Belfort to get his timing and distancing right before landing some quick, powerful shots and stating up the "Old Vitor is Back!" rants across the MMA world. Vitor Belfort by TKO - Round 2
Junior Dos Santos (-140) vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (+110)
Breakdown: The prized pupil of "Minotauro" Nogueria, Dos Santos, takes on the former PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix champion in a fight that will likely define the future of Cro Cop. Since entering the UFC, Cro Cop has been a massive disappointment, failing to live up to his legendary striker status. Much like Belfort, this fight may hinge on which Cro Cop shows up. The ability to throw a murderous head kick is always a possibly, but we haven't seen since his PRIDE days. The deadliest aspect of his hands we've seen recently was his fingers, which helped him eye poke his way to victory against Mustapha Al-Turk. As a stark contrast, Dos Santos has been a wrecking machine since debuting in the UFC last year. The "Mortal Kombat" uppercut he landed on Fabricio Werdum knocked him out of consciousness, a title shot and the UFC completely. Add to that his training with the Nogueria brothers and we could be looking at a future heavyweight champion.
Pick: Cro Cop's futility since entering the octagon makes it almost impossible to pick him in this fight. It will interesting to see what happens if Dos Santos eats of Mirko's kicks to the legs or head, but he has to throw and land one first. "Cigano" should be the faster and hungrier fighter coming in which should mean a short night for Croatian kickboxer. Junior Dos Santos by TKO - Round 1
Martin Kampmann (-500) vs. Paul Daley (+300)
Breakdown: A late replacement for the injured Mike Swick, Daley faces a huge obstacle in his UFC debut in Kampmann. The Brit, Daley, has great striking skills but has an almost non-existent ground game as evidenced by the Jake Shields fight. Kampmann enters this fight with a well rounded skill set knowing he is very close to getting a title shot against Georges St. Pierre. As good as Daley is on the feet, Kampmann has some serious striking that can tide him over until he ultimately gets this fight to the floor.
Pick: Nothing groundbreaking here. Kampmann: good takedowns and submission skills. Daley: exact opposite of Kampmann. There is a short exchange on the feet before a takedown is scored, Kampmann advances position to mount, Daley rolls and is finished shortly after by a choke. Martin Kampmann by submission (rear-naked choke) - Round 1
Other Main Card Bouts
Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg - Josh Koscheck by KO - Round 1
Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca - Tyson Griffin by split decision
Undercard Bouts
Cole Miller vs. Efrain Escudero - Cole Miller by submission (triangle choke) - Round 2
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajc - Vladimir Matyushenko by unanimous decision
Nik Lentz vs. Rafaello Oliveira - Rafaello Oliveira by TKO - Round 3
Ricky Story vs. Brian Foster - Brian Foster by unanimous decision
Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez - Jim Miller by unanimous decision
Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal - Drew McFedries by KO - Round 1
Eliot Marshall vs Jason Brilz - Jason Brilz by unanimous decision
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rob Emerson - Rafael dos Anjos by submission - Round 3
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