Main Card Bouts
(Fight odds according to Bodog Sportsbook)
Lyoto Machida (-375) vs. Mauricio Rua (+290)
In his first defense of his light-heavyweight title, Lyoto Machida gets the unevniable task of taking on the former PRIDE middleweight GP winner, Mauricio Rua. As is typical of a UFC title fight, this is being cast as a battle between two distinct styles. Machida, a karate master who relies on distance, timing, flawless defense, and lethal parrying, versus "Shogun", a muay thai striker who relies on unorthodox striking, and punishing clinch work. The big question coming in is whether Shogun will be able to solve Machida's elusive style and work his strengths on the inside.
Breakdown: Despite their respective prowess on the feet, the deciding factor could be Rua's ability to take Machida to the floor. Even with his impressive first round knockout of Chuck Liddell in April, it is very hard to believe that a wild striker, albeit an excellent one, like Shogun will be able to land the necessary shots to score the (T)KO. Machida is the least hit fighter in UFC history, and it's not hard to see why. The man is a technician in the purest sense of the word. He maintains a very wide stance which provides him with perfect balance to elude strikes, avoid takedowns, and step in to pounce on mistakes by his opponents. Refer to his last fight against Rashad Evans for proof of the last part. Evans, a skilled boxer, feigned a left and followed with a right cross which was immediately parried down and met with a cracking right from Machida that was basically the end of the fight. With a KO being more or less a minute possibility, that leaves the ground as Shogun best asset to score the victory.
If there is one (small) flaw in Machida's game it is that he has shown that he can be taken down. In consecutive UFC bouts against Kazuhiro Nakamura and Sokoudjou, he found himself on his back, although not for very long. It's a leap to say that Shogun can definitely land a takedown because those two did because both fighters are decorated judokas, but he is no slouch at get fights to the floor from the clinch. During his PRIDE GP run, he used clinch trips on numerous occasions to get Antonio Rogerio Nogueria to floor and land some strikes. Both fighters are BJJ black belts, but the edge may have to go to Shogun in that area simply because we've seen him utilize it more in MMA.
Pick: Getting this fight to the ground is Shogun's best chance to win this fight, but don't expect it to happen. Most of his takedowns are set up by leg strikes which will be exceedingly difficult to land on Machida. Oh, and there's that giant question mark about Shogun's gas tank, which was a problem even before his two ACL reconstructions. Simply trying to land on Machida might be enough to wear him out enough for the champ to put things away. We've seen what happens when a muay thai striker tries to wade in and throw bombs with his hands down at Machida, and it wasn't pretty. Expect the "Machida Era" to continue with the emphatic thud of Shogun hitting the canvas. Lyoto Machida by TKO - Round 3
Cain Velasquez (-350) vs. Ben Rothwell (+275)
Breakdown: Coming in to this fight, the majority of the attention has been on the supposed question of Velasquez's chin. In an all too growing trend among MMA fans and writers, the "fish memory" kicks in and a fighter's last bout is the ultimate barometer of their skills. Therefore, because Velasquez was rocked on several occassions by Cheick Kongo, a legitmate K-1 level striker, he has a glass jaw and has no stand up defense. Although there is a very limited sample size because he has only had 6 professional fights, these claims are clearly overreactions. In no way is Cain an elite striker a this point in his career, but he does have the skills necessary to get inside on Rothwell and take the fight to the ground. "Big" Ben is just that, big, but he isn't exactly the most adept fighter in the world at stuffing takedowns. In the IFL, current Ultimate Fighter cast member Roy Nelson was able to take him down throughout the fight. If Nelson is able to get the fight to the mat, what is going to stop a former All-American wrestler from doing the same? Rothwell does hit hard, but his stand up is nowhere near as crisp as Kongo's, relying more on wild hooks and pressure to inflict damage. If he takes this route he takes against Velasquez, expect the wrestler impulse to kick in very quickly.
Pick: Make no mistake, this is a showcase fight for one of the UFC's rising heavyweight prospects. Rothwell is not a can by any stretch, but I can't get over the feeling that this fight was hand picked to get Velasquez an impressive win. If "Big" Ben can connect with one his wild hooks everything could go south, but I'd expect an unstoppable emergency takedown if this happens. Velasquez will control him with his dominant top game and look to finish with ground and pound, but I question if he has the same problem Brock Lesnar had in his first fights of not knowing how to finish. Until I see otherwise against upper level competition, I can't predict a finish of a tough guy like Rothwell. Doesn't matter though, Velasquez takes the win even without a finish. Cain Velasquez by unanimous decision
Josh Neer (+105) vs. Gleison Tibau (-135)
Breakdown: We've seen this fight play out before under different names so I'll be brief. Josh Neer has trouble with guys who can take him down, hold him there and avoid his aggressive submission attempts from guard. The best thing working for Tibau is Neer's propensity to get agitated when he gets dominated by a wrestler and attempts to lure his opponent into a mess of a kickboxing fight. Tibau is smarter than that and knows what his strengths are. He's going to take Neer down, hold him there, and look for submissions from the top. No one is going to accuse this one of being fight of the year.
Pick: Unless Gleison Tibau gasses, gets sloppy, and dives into a guillotine during a takedown (ala the Joe Stevenson fight), he is pretty much the worst possible match up for Neer. It's not going to be a lot of fun to watch, but it should be a clear cut victory based on top control. No matter how it plays out, look for Neer to be surprised/pissed when the decision is announced, however lopsided the fight was. Gleison Tibau by unanimous decision
Anthony Johnson (-450) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300)
Breakdown: This fight has "KO of the Night" bonus written all over it. MMA news sites and forums alike are buzzing with the news that Johnson cuts 50 (!) pounds to make the welterweight limit of 170. This pretty much guarantees that he will have a decided size and strength advantage over Yoshida. As we've seen in his bout with Tommy Speer, and the second go around with Kevin Burns, "Rumble" has some beastly power in his strikes and can end a fight in the blink of an eye. Contrast that with Yoshida who was straight up starched by Josh Koscheck not too long ago, and it's pretty clear who has the advantage standing. The one thing "Zenko" has in his favor is a decided vantage in the clinch and on the floor. A black belt level judoka, Yoshida has a serious anaconda choke, and Johnson has been subbed by fighters with above average ground skills before. The problem will be getting past Johnson's strikes and throwing a man who will be well north of 180 pounds come fight time.
Pick: If Yoshida can somehow survive into the 3rd round, it's possible that Johnson's weight cut could cause him to gas and make it easier to score a takedown. That's assuming "Rumble" doesn't rearrange his face sometime in the 10 minutes before the 3rd round. We all know what happens when you assume, but I'm willing to take that chance. Johnson is a better striker than Koscheck and he may end this fight in a more violent fashion, if that's at all possible. Anthony Johnson by TKO - Round 1
Joe Stevenson (-270) vs. Spencer Fisher (+210)
Breakdown: For some reason, this fight is the toughest one to try and get a handle on. Although the lines are pretty steep, this fight feels a lot closer than Stevenson being a 3 to 1 favorite. What makes this fight difficult to get a grip on is the fact that you almost never know what kind of performance you will get from either fighter. Will you get the boxer Joe Stevenson who completely abandons his powerful takedowns, or will he actually utilize the ground advantage he has against Fisher? Will the Thiago Alves/Sam Stout II version of Fisher show up, or will the recent, underwhelming Caol Uno version be there on Saturday? The way I see it, if the intelligent, grappling whiz Joe Stevenson shows up, it could be a rough night for Fisher. Joe "Daddy" is a top notch grappler and Fisher's takedown defense, while serviceable, may not be enough to stop a someone as strong as Stevenson. If Fisher can stuff some takedowns and punish Stevenson for the attempts, he might be able to steal this one away.
Pick: It's tough to go against the odds and pick Spencer Fisher considering his track record in fights that can put him into the contender department. Joe "Daddy", now with Greg Jackson in his corner, will likely take away the advangtages that Fisher has in the stand up and turn this one into a grappling match. A stoppage is unlikely for Stevenson, but when the final bell rings it should be pretty clear who won the fight. Joe Stevenson by unanimous decision
Undercard Bouts
(favorite is italicized)
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen - Yushin Okami by submission (kimura) - Round 2
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Shafer - Ryan Bader by unanimous decision
Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve - Chase Gormley by TKO - Round 1
Patrick Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk - Antoni Hardonk by TKO - Round 1
Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons - Rob Kimmons by submission (guillotine choke) - Round 1
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan - Kyle Kingsbury by unanimous decision
For the Gambling types...
Confidence Picks: Plays on Machida, Bader and Okami
Official Parlay: Bader+Okami+Velasquez+Kimmons
High Risk/Reward Parlay: Yoshida+Rivera+Rothwell+Stevenson
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