UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun - Breakdown and Picks

Main Card Bouts
(Fight odds according to Bodog Sportsbook)

Lyoto Machida (-375) vs. Mauricio Rua (+290)

In his first defense of his light-heavyweight title, Lyoto Machida gets the unevniable task of taking on the former PRIDE middleweight GP winner, Mauricio Rua. As is typical of a UFC title fight, this is being cast as a battle between two distinct styles. Machida, a karate master who relies on distance, timing, flawless defense, and lethal parrying, versus "Shogun", a muay thai striker who relies on unorthodox striking, and punishing clinch work. The big question coming in is whether Shogun will be able to solve Machida's elusive style and work his strengths on the inside.

Breakdown: Despite their respective prowess on the feet, the deciding factor could be Rua's ability to take Machida to the floor. Even with his impressive first round knockout of Chuck Liddell in April, it is very hard to believe that a wild striker, albeit an excellent one, like Shogun will be able to land the necessary shots to score the (T)KO. Machida is the least hit fighter in UFC history, and it's not hard to see why. The man is a technician in the purest sense of the word. He maintains a very wide stance which provides him with perfect balance to elude strikes, avoid takedowns, and step in to pounce on mistakes by his opponents. Refer to his last fight against Rashad Evans for proof of the last part. Evans, a skilled boxer, feigned a left and followed with a right cross which was immediately parried down and met with a cracking right from Machida that was basically the end of the fight. With a KO being more or less a minute possibility, that leaves the ground as Shogun best asset to score the victory.

If there is one (small) flaw in Machida's game it is that he has shown that he can be taken down. In consecutive UFC bouts against Kazuhiro Nakamura and Sokoudjou, he found himself on his back, although not for very long. It's a leap to say that Shogun can definitely land a takedown because those two did because both fighters are decorated judokas, but he is no slouch at get fights to the floor from the clinch. During his PRIDE GP run, he used clinch trips on numerous occasions to get Antonio Rogerio Nogueria to floor and land some strikes. Both fighters are BJJ black belts, but the edge may have to go to Shogun in that area simply because we've seen him utilize it more in MMA.

Pick: Getting this fight to the ground is Shogun's best chance to win this fight, but don't expect it to happen. Most of his takedowns are set up by leg strikes which will be exceedingly difficult to land on Machida. Oh, and there's that giant question mark about Shogun's gas tank, which was a problem even before his two ACL reconstructions. Simply trying to land on Machida might be enough to wear him out enough for the champ to put things away. We've seen what happens when a muay thai striker tries to wade in and throw bombs with his hands down at Machida, and it wasn't pretty. Expect the "Machida Era" to continue with the emphatic thud of Shogun hitting the canvas. Lyoto Machida by TKO - Round 3

Cain Velasquez (-350) vs. Ben Rothwell (+275)

Breakdown: Coming in to this fight, the majority of the attention has been on the supposed question of Velasquez's chin. In an all too growing trend among MMA fans and writers, the "fish memory" kicks in and a fighter's last bout is the ultimate barometer of their skills. Therefore, because Velasquez was rocked on several occassions by Cheick Kongo, a legitmate K-1 level striker, he has a glass jaw and has no stand up defense. Although there is a very limited sample size because he has only had 6 professional fights, these claims are clearly overreactions. In no way is Cain an elite striker a this point in his career, but he does have the skills necessary to get inside on Rothwell and take the fight to the ground. "Big" Ben is just that, big, but he isn't exactly the most adept fighter in the world at stuffing takedowns. In the IFL, current Ultimate Fighter cast member Roy Nelson was able to take him down throughout the fight. If Nelson is able to get the fight to the mat, what is going to stop a former All-American wrestler from doing the same? Rothwell does hit hard, but his stand up is nowhere near as crisp as Kongo's, relying more on wild hooks and pressure to inflict damage. If he takes this route he takes against Velasquez, expect the wrestler impulse to kick in very quickly.

Pick: Make no mistake, this is a showcase fight for one of the UFC's rising heavyweight prospects. Rothwell is not a can by any stretch, but I can't get over the feeling that this fight was hand picked to get Velasquez an impressive win. If "Big" Ben can connect with one his wild hooks everything could go south, but I'd expect an unstoppable emergency takedown if this happens. Velasquez will control him with his dominant top game and look to finish with ground and pound, but I question if he has the same problem Brock Lesnar had in his first fights of not knowing how to finish. Until I see otherwise against upper level competition, I can't predict a finish of a tough guy like Rothwell. Doesn't matter though, Velasquez takes the win even without a finish. Cain Velasquez by unanimous decision

Josh Neer (+105) vs. Gleison Tibau (-135)

Breakdown: We've seen this fight play out before under different names so I'll be brief. Josh Neer has trouble with guys who can take him down, hold him there and avoid his aggressive submission attempts from guard. The best thing working for Tibau is Neer's propensity to get agitated when he gets dominated by a wrestler and attempts to lure his opponent into a mess of a kickboxing fight. Tibau is smarter than that and knows what his strengths are. He's going to take Neer down, hold him there, and look for submissions from the top. No one is going to accuse this one of being fight of the year.

Pick: Unless Gleison Tibau gasses, gets sloppy, and dives into a guillotine during a takedown (ala the Joe Stevenson fight), he is pretty much the worst possible match up for Neer. It's not going to be a lot of fun to watch, but it should be a clear cut victory based on top control. No matter how it plays out, look for Neer to be surprised/pissed when the decision is announced, however lopsided the fight was. Gleison Tibau by unanimous decision

Anthony Johnson (-450) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300)

Breakdown: This fight has "KO of the Night" bonus written all over it. MMA news sites and forums alike are buzzing with the news that Johnson cuts 50 (!) pounds to make the welterweight limit of 170. This pretty much guarantees that he will have a decided size and strength advantage over Yoshida. As we've seen in his bout with Tommy Speer, and the second go around with Kevin Burns, "Rumble" has some beastly power in his strikes and can end a fight in the blink of an eye. Contrast that with Yoshida who was straight up starched by Josh Koscheck not too long ago, and it's pretty clear who has the advantage standing. The one thing "Zenko" has in his favor is a decided vantage in the clinch and on the floor. A black belt level judoka, Yoshida has a serious anaconda choke, and Johnson has been subbed by fighters with above average ground skills before. The problem will be getting past Johnson's strikes and throwing a man who will be well north of 180 pounds come fight time.

Pick: If Yoshida can somehow survive into the 3rd round, it's possible that Johnson's weight cut could cause him to gas and make it easier to score a takedown. That's assuming "Rumble" doesn't rearrange his face sometime in the 10 minutes before the 3rd round. We all know what happens when you assume, but I'm willing to take that chance. Johnson is a better striker than Koscheck and he may end this fight in a more violent fashion, if that's at all possible. Anthony Johnson by TKO - Round 1

Joe Stevenson (-270) vs. Spencer Fisher (+210)

Breakdown: For some reason, this fight is the toughest one to try and get a handle on. Although the lines are pretty steep, this fight feels a lot closer than Stevenson being a 3 to 1 favorite. What makes this fight difficult to get a grip on is the fact that you almost never know what kind of performance you will get from either fighter. Will you get the boxer Joe Stevenson who completely abandons his powerful takedowns, or will he actually utilize the ground advantage he has against Fisher? Will the Thiago Alves/Sam Stout II version of Fisher show up, or will the recent, underwhelming Caol Uno version be there on Saturday? The way I see it, if the intelligent, grappling whiz Joe Stevenson shows up, it could be a rough night for Fisher. Joe "Daddy" is a top notch grappler and Fisher's takedown defense, while serviceable, may not be enough to stop a someone as strong as Stevenson. If Fisher can stuff some takedowns and punish Stevenson for the attempts, he might be able to steal this one away.

Pick: It's tough to go against the odds and pick Spencer Fisher considering his track record in fights that can put him into the contender department. Joe "Daddy", now with Greg Jackson in his corner, will likely take away the advangtages that Fisher has in the stand up and turn this one into a grappling match. A stoppage is unlikely for Stevenson, but when the final bell rings it should be pretty clear who won the fight. Joe Stevenson by unanimous decision

Undercard Bouts
(favorite is italicized)

Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen - Yushin Okami by submission (kimura) - Round 2
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Shafer - Ryan Bader by unanimous decision
Chase Gormley vs. Stefan Struve - Chase Gormley by TKO - Round 1
Patrick Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk - Antoni Hardonk by TKO - Round 1
Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons - Rob Kimmons by submission (guillotine choke) - Round 1
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan - Kyle Kingsbury by unanimous decision


For the Gambling types...

Confidence Picks: Plays on Machida, Bader and Okami
Official Parlay: Bader+Okami+Velasquez+Kimmons
High Risk/Reward Parlay: Yoshida+Rivera+Rothwell+Stevenson

The SEC takes out the garbage

The good news: The SEC finally woke up and suspended the bums responsible for the Florida-Arkansas and LSU-Georgia debacles.

The bad news: They have immediately hired the ALCS umpire crew as their temporary replacements.

Chris Chelios: The Anti-Brett Favre

See, there is a way to attempt a professional sports comeback without being a complete attention whore.

The 25-year veteran and sure fire first ballot Hall of Famer signed a contract with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL yesterday. Obviously, the hope is to get a call up to the big squad in Chicago, or get traded to a team that needs a serviceable blue liner. The painful reality, however, is that he will probably never get that call up and the end of his incredible career will come in the minors. For the better part of the last 3 season, Cheli has spent his time being listed on the injury report, being a healthy scratch and playing minimal time on the Red Wings 3rd defensive pairing. Sad to say, but the game has really passed him by. Even when he was healthy enough to play, it was clear that his legs simply weren't on the same level with his defensive IQ anymore. Despite the eroding skills, Chelios gets alot of credit for one thing; he's going about his comeback the right way.

For a player who is held in as high regard by everyone around the NHL as Chelios is, it would have been very easy for him to put an ultimatum in front of the Red Wings a few years ago. Trade me, release me, or play me; it's that simple. But did he? No, he took his healthy scratches like a man and used the opportunity to coach up the younger players. You think a young defenseman like Niklas Kronwall has benefited from his knowledge only 20+ years in the league can bring? And when the Red Wings parted ways with him at the end of last season, did he immediately seek out the Penguins or Blackhawks and ask them to sign him? Again, not even close. Yes, the Blackhawks are probably the Red Wings biggest rival, but they came calling for him, not the other way around.

My favorite part of this whole thing is Cheli's willingness to work his way back into the NHL rather than play the legend card in hopes of a deal. I have very little doubt that he could have caught on with a lower level team and started right away. But instead, he decided to go back home to Chicago and attempt to salvage his career where he A) is still beloved for his time with the 'Hawks in the 90's and B) will not be taking away a roster spot from an equally deserving player simply because he's Chris Chelios. A testament to just how right he is handling this situation: even with him being in a rival's organization, he remains the player's representative for the Red Wings. You think Detroit would agree to that if he pulled a Favre on them and held them hostage year after year?

From beginning to end, whenever it may be, Chelios has always done things the right way. Easiest way to figure that one out: Watch what happens if/when Chelios goes back to Detriot as a Blackhawk and compare it to how Favre is going to be received in Green Bay in 2 weeks. You tell me who knows how to handle things correctly.

Second Guess Machine: Joe Girardi's Big Binder of Micromanagement

Joe Girardi would like to take this moment to completely ignore any or all of your favorite "don't out think the room" cliches. The Yankee manager's inexplicable decision to lift right handed reliever David Robertson in favor of right handed reliever Alfredo Aceves in the name of matching up (?) has attracted the criticism wagon train out to Anaheim. Generally, I'm not in to the whole blame the manager when something goes wrong game. However, the amount of head scratching done because of his decisions has bascially left me without a choice in the matter. With that said, far be it for me to be left behind on this wonderfully justified Girardi bash.

For all of those who don't follow the Yankees with the borderline unhealthy fervor that I do, this is nothing new for the skipper. His obsession with statistics and creating the perfect pitching match up has reached a level that he has become almost a caricature of Tony LaRussa. Very rarely do teams carry specialist pitchers that are used in anything other than a one-and-done fashion these days. Relievers are now more likely to be counted on for a full inning or more, regardless of who is batting or what their handedness is. Girardi carries 2 specialists on his playoff roster in Phil Coke and Damaso Marte. Not only do these pitcher's artificially lengthen a game by demanding constant pitching changes, the are more or less dead weight in a short series. With only a 25 man roster to work with in the playoffs, there is no room for a one-and-done player. If Girardi cannot trust a bullpen pitcher for more than 1/3 of an inning, they probably shouldn't be on the roster.

What was especially troubling about Girardi's final trip to the mound in Game 3 was that it was clear that he had made up his mind about what he was going to do, even after Robertson got two quick outs. Instead of trusting his eyes and watching his reliever retire two hitters who are far more adept than Howie Kendrick, Girardi went to his Grey's Anatomy size stats book and lifted his pitcher. Why you ask? Who knows. If ESPN has to look up Kendrick's percentage of hits against the fastball and the average number of fastballs Robertson and Aceves throw to hitters, you're probably over thinking the situation. For a manager who is obviously obsessed with knowing a pitcher's history against a batter and the variety of pitches they throw, Girardi must have a fairly selective memory. Lest he forget, Aceves was the pitcher who forced A-Rod into the hero role (again) in Game 2 with his futility in the 11th inning. As soon as he started down from the bullpen my first thought was "this moment is way too big for him to handle". Of course, because I went with my gut instinct, I was right. See Joe, it is that easy sometimes.

Lucky for Joe, he might get the mental break he needs in Game 4, when he sends one of the best stoppers in the majors, CC Sabathia, to mound tonight. But then again, if the wrong match up presents itself, maybe even CC will have to look over his shoulder for his manager.

In the Binder Girardi Trusts.

Knee-jerk Reactions: America, meet Mark Ingram

1) The NCAA hates Nick Saban: I can't think of any other reason for the continued disrespect of this incredible team. Florida is gift wrapped a win thanks to homer calls from incompetent SEC referees (to be discussed later), Texas looks flat and uninspired against a deflated Oklahoma team, USC takes a page out of the Minnesota Vikings playbook and gives up in the fourth quarter, Virginia Tech loses to a team without an passing game, and Miami looks less than impressive against a terrible UCF team. Meanwhile, in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide absolutely dismantle a South Carolina team that is better than most people think, and it is largely glossed over.

Why? You've got me.

Need proof that the BCS is either horribly flawed, or a total joke; Florida has beaten one ranked team and is nearly .040 percentage points ahead of Alabama, a team with 3 ranked wins in 7 games. The only thing keeping me from jumping into the "total joke" camp is the fact that there is no other team within .060 percentage points of either of these teams. Clearly Florida and Alabama are the best two teams in the country, but the problem is they're no longer interchangeable as most people believe. At this point in the season, Alabama is without question the number one team in the nation. Get that "their the champs until someone beats them" argument out of here. This isn't boxing, it's college football. New year, new teams, new number 1. The Tide have better wins and have looked better in their wins, simple as that.

Watching Alabama play, I keep having this thought that they are a Big 10 team trapped in the SEC. Not a bad thing, just a stylistic observation. Looking at the SEC, the top teams usually step on the field with a high octane offense and an athletic defense that can fly around the field an threaten a pick-six on every throw. Alabama is a different kind of monster in the SEC. Yes, they can punish you for making a bad throw, but it's usually the result of their front seven being dominant to a point where the offense has to try and force passes down field. No one will ever accuse the Tide's offense of being explosive, but make no mistake, they have playmakers everywhere and can put up some serious points.

The problem with Top 25 pollsters is that often times they get blown away by statistics and don't really take into consideration how games play out. Alabama beat South Carolina 20-6, and that's about the extent of knowledge a pollster needs when making up their Top 25. Sure, I have absolutely no proof of this, but it's the only logical conclusion I can make when the polls continue to have the Gators at #1. The score of the game was 20-6, but really that game was nowhere near as close as the score indicates. Alabama totally dominated the Gamecocks on both sides of the ball, but apparently that has little or no bearing on their ranking. Florida gets soundly outplayed by a brutal Arkansas team, but holds on to their top spot because "a win is a win".

Final score doesn't mean everything. When voters figure that out, I can stop wasting time complaining about the best team in a conference sitting behind the second best team in the national polls.

2) OK, one more point on Alabama...: Mark Ingram is a freak. The big questions going into this season were if Alabama would be able to replace John Parker Wilson at QB, and if losing Glen Coffee would allow defenses to key in on the new play caller. Well, so far they've answered with a "kinda" and "not at all". Nothing helps a new QB get his bearings than having the option to hand the ball off to a stud running back and piggy-back a passing attack off him. That is exactly what Ingram was brought to Alabama this season. Not only has he opened up the passing game for the Tide by forcing teams to stack the box to stop him, he has the ability to beat an 8 man front and break away if he gets the edge. 245 yards against a Steve Spurrier defense should be a red flag for every team that they need to know where Ingram is at all times. With most of the top Heisman candidates floundering, this sophomore might just sneak up and steal it away if he keeps playing like he has.

3) "The Sweater Vest" may be in a bit of trouble in Columbus: Update on the "Who Wants to be the Next Bob Stoops" competition. After actually showing some heart and fight against USC, Charlie Weis slips to second in the standings. That leaves you Coach Tressel; congrats for being the leader at midway point of the season. No, Purdue isn't a big game, but you still lost to a team that was badly over matched, ala Bob Stoops. A great comment was made in the weekly live chat hosted by Rivals.com by one of their analysts. In regards to Terrelle Pryor and his 4 turnover implosion against the Boilermakers, a remark was made that Pryor is Troy Smith in Vince Young clothes. I thought about that line for a moment, then basically said yeah, that's accurate. The Buckeyes quarterback is built the Texas standout/Tennesee disaster, but has the Troy Smith problem of not knowing what kind of QB he is. Yes he can run the ball effectively, but his throwing mechanics are simply awful. Even on the TD pass he threw, the pass was off balance and off of his back foot. If Tressell can't figure out how to fix his QB and turn his program around, expect the calls for his head to only get louder.

4) The South Eastern Conference: Where referees decide the game, not the teams: Thank you SEC for providing more fuel to my fiery hatred of over involved referees. We have a new clubhouse leader for garbage ref crew of the year with the Arkansas-Florida crew topping the LSU-Georgia squad by wide margins. Oh wait, no we don't, because it was THE SAME CREW! If anyone can provide a logical explaination as to why these people are allowed to be in charge of these games, I'll give you a cookie. Rather than ramble on about how bad the judgment of these fine individuals was, I'll let the visuals do the talking for me. Huge ups to Michael David Smith from Fanhouse.com for compiling the evidence. Here's the multi-video link. Nice work, gentlemen.

5) The New Orleans Saints; the best team in football: And really, it's not even close. Drew Brees and company completely dominated the best statistical defense in the league, and Eli Manning was made to look middle of the road against an ever improving defense. Seven TD's by seven different players doesn't just scream "Drew Brees for MVP", it screams well balanced offensive attack. And if any team thinks they're going into the Superdome and winning a game against this team now, let alone the playoffs, they're in for a rude awakening. Other than maybe Jets fans at the Meadowlands, there is probably no other stadium that gives it's team a college football like home field advantage like the Superdome. If the Saints play the rest of the season the way they played the first 1/3, the Patriots of '07 may have some company in the record books.

6) I hate the Baltimore Ravens: Why? I think we all know why. Because of their lack of a experienced kicker, everyone in America will be treated to another week of Favre worship. Let's get a few things straight about this game; the missed FG was a bigger play than Favre's pass to Sidney Rice (who was covered all day by scrubs at defensive back), and 6-0 is incredibly deceptive.

Remember what I said earlier, stats aren't everything. Yes, the Vikings are 6-0, but they are the least impressive of the undefeated teams. My awful break-up with Brett Favre has absolutely nothing to do with this observation either. I say this because Minnesota pulled a "USC vs. Notre Dame" against the Ravens, and have done so in every other game as well. Define pull a USC: To have another team completely dominated and on the verge of defeat before taking a foot off the opponents throat and allowing them back in the game. Six games into the season, and Minnesota has still yet to play an entire four quarters of football. Baltimore was out of the game in the fourth quarter, and the Vikings played exactly like they were. 3 TD's later, they're behind and wondering what happened. If there was any justice in the world, they would have lost that game simply so the team could learn a lesson. You never kick a man when he's down, except in football where you dance on the downed man until the song is over.

A quick note: Before you simply want to hand Jared Allen the Defensive POTY, take a look at the left tackles that he has gone against this season. Call me crazy, but smoking Daryn Colledge, Micheal Oher, and Joe Thomas off the edge isn't all that impressive. Last I checked we don't award incredible praise to people for doing exactly what they're paid to do. Don't get it twisted; Michael Oher keeping Allen away from Flacco in the 4th quarter is a lot more impressive than Allen beating Oher in the three quarters before that. Blow by Max Starks this weekend in Pittsburgh, then we'll talk.

7) The Titans quit, plain and simple: Give props the the Patriots, who finally look like they're back to playing the way they're supposed to. But, to say anything other than the Titans quit in the first half of that game is overstating Tom Brady and company's performance. Even in the snow, Tennesee looked like they're were moving in slow motion. The conditions didn't seem to slow down New England, so that leaves only one logical conclusion; they quit. You would hope that a team that went 13-and-3 last season would have enough pride to at least lay some punishing, but legal, hits on the Pats when they were clearly running up the score. Nope, they packed it in and watched the scoreboard light up drive after drive. If this keeps up, not only Jeff Fisher be out of a job, every owner in the NFL will be bankrupt from the cost of having to change the score every 90 seconds. Think about it; the electric bills will be through the roof.

8) Update: Derek Anderson still sucks: In regards to my post last week, I have now been vindicated in my reasoning that JaMarcus Russell is better than Derek Anderson. Easy logic: Raiders beat Eagles, 2-4 overall. Browns lose to Steelers, 1-5 overall. Conclussion: Anderson is garbage. One more time this week everyone; final score isn't everything. The Browns kept the game against Pittsburgh "close", but really it wasn't. If the Steelers didn't decide to re-enact the dreadful first 5 minutes of the Syracuse-South Florida game in the third quarter, the game would have been a blowout. But alas, to properly recreate the wonderful pageantry of the Orange and Bulls, it takes two willing participants. That's where Mr. Anderson comes in to play.

First the good things he did. He threw a 1 yard TD.

............................................

OK, now that we have that out of the way, here's where he sucked. Anderson completed 38 percent of his passes (wow), passed for 122 yards (cool) and turned the ball over 3 times (incredible). It's called karma Coach Mangini; that's what you get for naming your kid after Brett Favre. For that idiotic decision, you will be forever haunted by inconsistent (non-existant, whatever) QB play wherever you go.

Just curious coach, does your son like waffles?