Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers - Breakdown and Picks

Main Card Bouts

Fedor Emelianenko (-625) vs. Brett Rogers (+425)

The undisputed (except for nerds on forums) #1 heavyweight in the world makes his Strikeforce debut against the 10-0 former Sam's Club "tire technician", Brett Rogers. Fedor is sports a 30-1 record for a reason; he hits hard, holds a combat sambo black-belt, is extremely slick with his ground game, and very well may not be human. His record reads as a who's who of MMA history with wins over UFC champs Mark Coleman (twice), Andrei Arlovski, Tim Sylvia, and two systematic beatdowns of former PRIDE champ "Minotauro" Nogueria. Rogers, while fairly green in the sport, sports an unbeaten record with 90% of his wins by way of (T)KO, including a 22 second TKO of Andrei Arlovski. While not the most technical fighter ever seen, "The Grim" possesses good knockout power and will have a distinct size and weight advantage over the Russian champion.

Breakdown: This fight just screams "squash match" to me, but that's not exactly hard hitting analysis so I'll elaborate. Rogers has 1 legit win under his belt, and it really wasn't all that impressive. Yes, he destroyed a former UFC champ in 22 seconds, but the fashion he went about it was a mess. He ate one leg kick before charging at Arlovski like a bull, flailing his arms and eventually tagging his retreating opponent. Somehow, the striking spasm he had against Arlovski is supposed to make him a huge threat to Fedor? "Fish memory" fans forget that Brett Rogers took 2 rounds to finish a member of BET's "Iron Ring" program, Abongo Humphrey. Fedor has faced far superior strikers than Rogers and managed to find openings to destroy them. The punches Fedor throws are looping, but they are that way intentionally. From his sambo background, his punches allow for multiple points of contact (whether it be the fist, forearm, or elbow) and establish range for takedowns. In the unlikely scenario he does get hit by Rogers, we've seen Fedor take Olympic judo medalists to the ground and finish so it's likely he could do the same to Rogers. We haven't seen "The Grim" on the mat yet so I'd have to assume that if it hits the ground, it's probably a wrap. Fedor's positioning, control, and quickness a serious problem for large heavyweights, especially if they are limited in their grappling ability.

Pick: It's really dorky to use the term "Fighter X by whatever he wants" when talking about a sport as erratic as MMA, but in this case, it's probably a safe bet. I see nothing Rogers brings to the table that Fedor hasn't seen done better by some opponent during his career. The home run right hand bomb is probably the only chance Rogers has, but against a fighter who has never been knocked out, it's unlikely. I expect Rogers to start out patiently and look for a chance to land a big punch, but he'll never get the chance. Fedor out-quicks Rogers and lands a flurry that stuns him before taking the fight to floor and finishing. "The Last Emperor" continues his reign with an impressive submission. Fedor Emelianenko by submission (armbar) - Round 1

Jake Shields (-340) vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller (+260)

Breakdown: MTV's favorite bully beater, Jason Miller, makes a rare appearance in a cage stateside against 2-time "Bully Beatdown" participant and Strikeforce middleweight champion, Jake Shields. Of the 4 match ups on the televised card, this bout is the most intriguing. Shields is coming off a impressive submission win over Robbie Lawler in his first foray into the middleweight division. The Cesar Gracie student holds claim to some of the best jiu-jitsu in MMA and will more than likely have an advantage if the fight hits the ground. Miller, though not at Shields' level as far as the grappling game, can more than hold his own. In a bout against jiu-jitsu world champion Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza under the DREAM banner, Miller was able to avoid the ground wizard's submission attempts in a losing effort. What could be the difference in the fight is Shields' relative deficiency in the striking department. Against Paul Daley it was very clear that Shields was a bit of a fish out of water in the stand up. He knows what makes his bank account swell, and he's very good at it. Miller, although the superior striker, is nothing fantastic on the feet, but he could pose some interesting problems for the champ. In order to work his stand up though, "Mayhem" will need to avoid Shields' takedowns, which is easier said than done considering Shields has good takedowns and Miller has less than stellar defense.

Pick: This is by far the toughest fight pick to make (for me at least) on the card. To win, Miller has to land some effective strikes on the feet and keep Shields from getting him down and holding him there. "Mayhem" says that he won't let Shields "dry hump" (actual quote) him for 25 minutes, and I'm going to take this bizarre, bizarre man at his word. I'd be amazed if there was a finish in this fight because I refuse to believe that Shields will succeed in submitting Miller where "Jacare" failed, and Miller isn't exactly the home run hitter to score the KO. It's going to be very close, but the "Mayhem Monkeys" will celebrate an upset win and we'll see a new middleweight champ. Jason "Mayhem" Miller by controversial split decision

Gegard Mousasi (-650) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (+450)

Breakdown: Remember when I said Fedor-Rogers screams "squash match" to me? Well, this fight has "squash match" beating me over the head with a sledgehammer, while being screamed at me until I admit that's what this fight is. Apologies to Sokoudjou, but Mousasi is just on a completely different level than he is. Soko's got judo and can Donkey Kong on the heads of Super Hulk's like Jan Nortje and Bob Sapp in Japan, but "the Dreamcatcher" (ugh, horrible nickname) is a different kind of monster. Mousasi trains at the Red Devil gym with Fedor and is similar to the Russian heavyweight in many ways. He has a very stoic demeanor in the cage and has the ability to finish fights on the feet, or on the ground, in devastating fashion. In his last fight, he won the Strikeforce light-heavyweight title by absolutely blasting Renato "Babalu" Sobral in just over a minute. I hate MMA math but...Mousasi KO'd "Babalu" who submitted Sokoudjou. Sorry, but this doesn't bode well for "the African Assassin".

Pick: I've already predicted this one before (from my DREAM.11 picks on 10/5 - "Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou by TKO - Round 1; earns a contract with Strikeforce and the right to be legally assaulted by Gegard Mousasi") and I'm not changing my mind now. This is a non-title match so it's only scheduled 3-5 minute rounds, but that's not going to be a factor. Quick for Mousasi, but in no way painless for Sokoudjou. Someone should call the cops, or the FCC, because CBS will be televising a crime against humanity in primetime. Gegard Mousasi by TKO - Round 1

Fabricio Werdum (-150) vs. Antonio Silva (+120)

Breakdown: I'm officially dubbing this fight the "Tryouts to be Fedor's next victim" as the winner is probably next in line the face Fedor (or Rogers if he scores the miracle KO). Admittedly, I don't know a ton about Antonio Silva other than he has a 13-1 record with no real impressive wins. The best win on his record is probably Ricco Rodriguez, and even that isn't all that great considering they fought during the fat suit/"Celebrity Rehab" phase of Ricco's life. Werdum on the other hand just recently won the heavyweight division of the ADCC grappling tournament and holds MMA wins over Gabriel Gonzaga (twice), Alistair Overeem, and Aleks Emelianenko (yes, Fedor's brother). Silva is pretty slow and plodding with his striking game, but Werdum's striking is almost non-existent outside of the clinch. Everyone seems to remember Werdum's last UFC fight against Junior Dos Santos when he got launched into orbit with an uppercut, and that's the signal he has a glass chin. Lest we forget he went the distance with a heavy handed Andrei Arlovski, and beat a brutal striker in Gonzaga twice. Much like Shields though, Werdum knows his bread and butter is his jiu-jistu game. If and when this fight reaches the mat, it's going to be a serious problem for Sliva.

Pick: I'm really disinterested in this fight, mostly because I would rather see the Marloes Coenen-Roxy Modaferri fight televised (with quick stoppages, there's hope). However, since I'm forcing myself to make a pick I'll try to reason it. Werdum scores a takedown at some point and it's a clinic from there until he secures whatever limb he chooses. Silva isn't anywhere close to the level of competition Werdum faced at Abu Dhabi so there is little reason for me to believe he can avoid a submission. Fabricio Werdum by submission (I dunno...let's say RNC) - Round 1


Undercard Bouts

Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modaferri - Marloes Coenen by unanimous decision
Jeff Curran vs. Dustin Neace - Jeff Curran by submission (triangle choke) - Round 1

Knee-jerk Reactions: Oregon lays a smackdown on So-Cal

1) This is going to be refreshing...: ...not having to hear from Mark May/Colin Cowherd/random assortment of Trojan apologists about USC getting screwed out of the National Title game for once. A USC team that is clearly nowhere near the level they have been in recent years finally got exposed in a 47-20 beating at "the Zoo". The funniest part about this game is that you could see this loss coming a mile away. For two weeks in a row USC's defense got torched by Notre Dame and Oregon State and it was only a matter of time before it cost them. Jeremiah Masoli (who was labeled as a terrible QB by Colin Cowherd about a month ago) completely abused USC's secondary with his vertical passing game, and kept the defensive backs from cheating on the pass by running his zone-read running game to perfection. This the only instance I can recall where Pete Carroll was soundly outcoached for an entire game. Chip Kelly went Urban Meyer on the Trojans; when he got the lead he refused to let up and continued to press the boot harder and harder on USC's throat. Great win for Oregon, but I keep getting this feeling that USC will still back in to the Pac-10 title and BCS bowl despite having 2 losses. If USC gets in to the BCS as an at-large team over an undefeated Boise State or TCU, a full investigation should be launched as it would be a criminal offense against more deserving teams.

2) Obligatory Referee Bash; Week 9 Edition: With the SEC and Pac-10 having so much fun messing up games, the Big 10 was getting lonely actually doing a decent job and decided to join in.
The scene of the crime: Kinnick Stadium.
The involved parties: Indiana Hoosiers and Iowa Hawkeyes.
The evidence: Exhibit A has to do with a brutally incorrect replay that pulled a touchdown off the board for the Hoosiers. When the viewer at home can tell it's a clear cut touchdown and the announcers can also tell, you screwed up. The exact point in the game escapes me at the moment, but the blown call came at a time where Indiana was looking to completely bury the Hawkeyes and their schizo QB Ricky Stanzi. With the TD call overturned, the Hoosiers were forced into a field goal try, which of course they missed. Seven point swing for the home team.

Exhibit B involves said schizo QB and a phantom unnecessary roughness call in the 4th quarter. As Stanzi was on his way out of bounds (key words - on his way out) he was hit relatively hard by a linebacker. Up went the flag for unnecessary roughness - leading with the helmet, and on went 15 yards to the play. Surprise, surprise, replay showed the defender clearly hit him with nothing but his shoulder while he was still well in bounds.

Let's see, that makes the score Iowa - 0, Indiana - 0, incompetent referees - 2. Not a bad score considering Iowa is competing for a BCS bid. Wonder if the fact they were playing a down and out Indiana team had anything to do with the preferential calls? Bring on the tin foil hats!

3) Welcome back, Florida Gators: Brandon Spikes' eye gouging nonsense aside, Florida's performance against Georgia was exactly the performance we've been waiting to see. Finally, the Gators actually did something to stake their claim as the #1 team in the country. Tim Tebow returned from his vacation in time to toss two first quarter TD's to his roommate, Riley Cooper, and they never looked back. Georgia was completely over matched in this game, and Florida finally laid a beat down that reflected this fact. I still think Alabama has a better resume for #1 at the moment, but a razor thin win or the Vols heading in to a bye week is just cause for the swap for now. If and when the Tide takes care of LSU I'll be right back to campaigning for their spot atop the college football polls.

4) Random thoughts:
- The BCS is going to be a mess this year and I couldn't be happier
- Iowa has Minnesota Vikings syndrome (win alot but never play a full game)
- TCU would truck Boise State and the polls should reflect that
- Texas still beats OK State with Dez Bryant, but it's a lot more competitive
- Golden Tate should be considered for the Heisman ahead of Jimmy Clausen
- Case Keenum is the next Colt Brennan/Timmy Chang/Graham Harrell. Pure system QB
- Remember Jevan Snead? No, neither does anyone else. The hype>>>the skill

5) Vikings-Packers Breakdown: Seeing as no football analysts can put their love of Brett Favre aside and breakdown a game logically, I suppose I'll do it. Here's how Minnesota won this game.

- Percy Harvin returns kicks for the Vikings. The Packers have Ahman Green. This gives Minnesota a short field on every drive. Green gives the Packers nothing. Green Bay usually ends up taking a holding penalty anyway, putting them at their own 10-15 yard line to start.

- Aaron Rodgers was sacked 6 times. Brett Favre was hit less than 6 times. All day to throw vs. get rid of it immediately or get run over by Jared Allen. Guess who wins that one?

- Threat of Adrian Peterson for the Vikings. Non-threat of Ryan Grant for Green Bay. If the Packers line can't pass block, what are the odds they can get a push and open up running lanes for Grant? Answer, zero chance.

- Because the Vikings can pass rush on the Packers, they can drop more players back in to coverage. Green Bay had to bring the house to even partially collapse the pocket around Favre, leaving only 3 or 4 defensive backs in zone coverage. With a QB who likes to throw slant passes as much as Favre, you really can't play zone and not expect to get burned.

It's a sad thing to watch because Aaron Rodgers is the most efficent QB in the NFL and he's playing for a team that seems content to watch him get killed. 30+ sacks in 7 games is entering expansion year Houston Texans levels of futility. Cris Carter said it best on "Mike and Mike in the Morning" when he said that if you took both QB's and switched teams, the Vikings still win but by a much wider margin. It's tough to argue that point when even with a slapped together offensive line, Rodgers still puts Green Bay on his back and makes games close. Look what happened to the Browns when they couldn't get to him: 15-20 for 246 yards and 3 TD's. If the Packers could do this against teams other than one that would struggle in the CFL, they might actually have stood a chance in that game.

6) Even with 1 win, the Browns are worse than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yeah, they're that bad. The Browns got smacked by the Bears, a week after Chicago was flat out embarrassed by the Bengals. Mangini finally did something right by yanking Derek Anderson from the game after he launched 2 picks (one for a TD) and fumbled the ball away once. Problem is the game was already over when Brady Quinn hit the field for his one and only series, a swift 3 and out. Nothing this team does is good, decent, or anything north of awful. Porous defense, non-existent offense, and a heavy dependance on special teams makes this team a bigger disaster than the Bucs, Raiders, Rams, etc. My favorite fact to come out this weekend is this: The New Orleans Saints have more defensive TD's (6) than the Browns have offensive TD's (5). This situation in Cleveland has "fire sale" written all over it and it's likely going to start at the bottom and continue until the entire franchise collapses.

Plus, I really wanted to work this photo in here somehow



No caption necessary.