TUF 10 Finale: Breakdown and Picks

Main Card Bouts

Roy Nelson (-250) vs. Brendan Schaub (+190)

Breakdown: After a long and brutal season (on the eyes of the viewers mostly), it's down to two fighters to decide who will win the Ultimate Fighter contract. The former heavyweight champion of the IFL (no, not Ben Rothwell, Rogan and Goldberg) takes on former NFL player and current member of Greg Jackson's camp, Brendan Schaub. If you go just by the performances on the show, this match up would appear to be extremely close. However, a closer inspection of both fighters widens the gap, and significantly. While Schaub had to press somewhat hard to make the finals, Nelson appeared to try and coast to finals in the most Dana White infuriating way possible. Kick and scream as much as you want about how Nelson wasn't impressive Mr. White, but there's a reason he may not have blown you away; he didn't try to. Nelson was so much better than every other member of the cast this season, that he was able to make it through his fights taking minimal damage while still flexing a serious ground game. Make no mistake, Nelson has a stand up game; just ask Brad Imes. But what provides a better opportunity to make through 3 fights in 8 weeks: standing and banging with your opponent, or use your superior ground game to make people look helpless when getting put in a crucifix and TKO'd? If Marcus Jones and his fledgling ground game was able to score a takedown and work his way to mount on Schaub, Nelson will more than likely hustle him on the ground even worse.

Pick: If the analysis was completely one sided, it's because it was, just like how I see this match playing out. Schaub has some things going for him (decent hands, good cardio)and could be dangerous in time. But pardon me for not having much faith in a guy who waxed a few scrubs in regional promotions and on TUF against a guy who has faced some of the best heavyweights on the planet. Don't let Nelson's appearance fool you, the man has some serious game, and he will prove it on Saturday. "Big Country" will win, the only debatable part is how he wins. Just out of desire to see the look on Dana White's face, I'll go the route of he locks up the crucifix and pounds Schaub out early. Roy Nelson by TKO and belly rub - Round 1

Matt Hamill (+250) vs. Jon Jones (-325)

Breakdown: Light-heavyweights take the stage when another former TUF contestant, Matt Hamill, takes on rising, 21 year old prospect training out of Cortland, New York. Hamill is coming off back-to-back stoppage victories including a vicious head kick knockout of Mark Munoz at UFC 96, while "Bones" Jones is undefeated at 9-and-0. Despite being only 21, Jon Jones brings some of the most unusual and electrifying striking to table, along with his impressive Greco-Roman wrestling background. What will likely be the deciding factor in this fight will be Hamill's ability to get inside, clinch up, and attempt to get Jones to the ground. "The Hammer" earned some stoppages with strikes, but his stand up is still very elementary. Plus, his bread and butter is working top control using his wrestling base. Not that Hamill is a complete bum in the stand up, he's just completely over matched by a bigger, longer, and more talented striker. When I say Jones is a big LHW, I mean he's a BIG LHW, standing a lanky 6'4. Against Stephan Bonnar, who is big LHW in his own right, he looked small against "Bones". Oh, and he got completely ragdolled with suplexes and spinning elbows for 15 minutes in a lopsided decision. If Jones can use his length, speed, bizarre strikes, and wrestling in reverse, he could make this one look like sparring practice.

Pick: Don't let the line on this one fool you, it's a lot closer than the 3 to 1 odds suggest. We've only seen one fighter in the UFC shoot a takedown on Jon Jones, and he dove right in to a fight ending guillotine choke. Hamill's a strong guy and I expect him to plant Jones on his back a couple times over the course of the fight. The interesting thing will be if Jones' cardio holds up and if he can do enough damage on the feet to still win rounds despite being taken down. If Hamill can get inside, this fight has a chance to be close. If not, it will be a "Bones" Jones blowout. Look for something in the middle of those two scenarios, with Jones improving to 10-and-0. Jon Jones by unanimous decision

Frankie Edgar (-650) vs. Matt Veach (+450)

Breakdown: A late replacement for the injured Kurt Pellegrino, Veach takes on the man charge with providing New Jersey with something to be proud of after MTV's "Jersey Shore" set the entire state back 5-10 years. Veach is 11-and-0, but he probably in over his head against "The Answer" in this fight. Edgar has amassed 5 wins in the UFC, including victories over top lightweights Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk, Hermes Franca, and Spencer Fisher. His only loss came at the hands of the unbeaten Gray Maynard, who is widely considered to be the next challenger for the lightweight title after Diego Sanchez. As we saw in the Sherk fight, Edgar's striking has become very polished, which compliments his wrestling ability nicely. Veach has stopped 10 of his 11 fights (4 (T)KO, 6 subs), but it's hard to imagine him being able to stop "The Answer" where Franca, Griffin, and others have failed.

Pick: Considering how close Frankie Edgar is to a title shot, or at least should be, don't expect a letdown from the Jersey native. "The Answer" will use his superior striking to keep Veach at a distance and stave off the takedown attempts. Don't look for Veach to take his first loss without putting up a fight, but when the final horn sounds, he will have a crooked number in his loss column. Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision

Houston Alexander (-340) vs. Kimbo Slice (+260)

Breakdown: You've got to give it to the UFC front office, when they know they have something that can make them money, they know how to milk it to it's fullest. Such is the case of the man who was knocked out with a backpedaling jab by Seth Petruzelli and crucified on TUF by Roy Nelson, the YouTube sensation Kimbo Slice. So, Kimbo gets schooled on the mat on TUF, how can they possibly get any use out of a guy who is a fish out of water when his opponent won't stand in front of him and brawl. I know, let's stick him against a guy with an equal non-existent ground game who will stand in front of him and brawl. What's Houston Alexander doing?

There's not many certainties in life, but one thing is for certain in this fight; it's not going to the ground unless one fighter is in a lessened state of consciousness. Kimbo sucks on the ground, and so does Houston. Kimbo has serviceable stand up (it's not good from a technical standpoint) and Houston actually has good muay thai skills, until he gasses out of course. What separates these two, besides the presence of quality MMA wins, is punching power. For some reason, because Kimbo brutalized some people in backyards and boat yards, made Bo CANtrell (see what I did there) tap to strikes, KO'd 40+ brawler Tank Abbott, and got a BS standing KO of James Thompson, he has dynamite in his gloves. Sorry folks, I'm going to play Mythbuster on this one. If it takes a godawful referee stoppage for you to "KO" James Thompson, you either A) have overrated power, B) lack the technique to throw a proper power shot, or both. The correct answer is "both". Kimbo does not use his legs or hips when he throws punches; his punches are almost exclusively arm punches. Unless you have explosive power, which Kimbo really doesn't, arm punches aren't going to cut it against strikers who have proper technique and possess real power (Alexander).

Pick: I love a good freak show, and this one will be good while it lasts. Houston's chin isn't exactly granite, so if he gets sloppy, he may get clipped and put to sleep. However, considering the leg issues that Kimbo was shown to have on TUF and Houston's affinity for throwing leg kicks (Sherman Pedergarst - TKO (leg kicks and punches)), K-Ferg might be in for a short night. A few good leg kicks cause Kimbo to drop his hands just long enough for "The Assassin" to land the kill shot very early. Hey, you can't say the UFC didn't try to find Kimbo a good match up. Houston Alexander by KO - Round 1

Marcus Jones (-340) vs. Matt Mitrione (+260)

Breakdown: Here's what I see:

Marcus Jones subbed a UFC veteran and KO'd a unbeaten prospect on TUF.
Matt Mitrione gassed in 2 minutes against a UFC vet and won the trainwreck fight before diving into a guillotine against a 3-4 fighter with no ground game.

Who do you think wins?

Pick: If Marcus keeps his chin tucked for 2-3 minutes in the first round, I'd say he's safe in this one. "Big Baby" scores a takedown then proceeds to hustle Mitrione until he snatches up whichever arm is available. Marcus Jones by submission (armbar) - Round 1


Undercard Bouts

Justin Wren vs. Jon Madsen - Justin Wren by unanimous decision
Darrill Schoonover vs. James McSweeney - Darrill Schoonover by submission (RNC) - Round 2
John Howard vs. Dennis Hallman - John Howard by TKO - Round 3
Brian Stann vs. Rodney Wallace - Rodney Wallace by superior nickname (Sho Nuff the Master) and TKO - Round 2
Mark Bocek vs. Joe Brammer - Mark Bocek by unanimous decision

Jesper Parnevik is a tool

(Ed. note: I usually try to avoid bold-face hate posts because they usually show a complete lack of knowledge, objectivity, and basic use of tact. However, when something as idiotic as Parnevik's comments presents itself, I'm willing to bend a bit.)

Define "tool".

Tool: (adjective) A person, typically male, who says or does things that cause you to give them a 'what-are-you-even-doing-here' look. The 'what-are-you-even-doing-here' look is classified by a glare in the tool's direction and is usually accompanied by muttering of how big of a tool they are. The tool is usually someone who is unwelcome but no one has the balls to tell them to get lost. The tool is always making comments that are out-of-place, out-of-line or just plain stupid. The tool is always trying too hard to fit in, and because of this, never will.

(courtesy of Urban Dictionary)

Yeah, I think that's pretty fitting for Mr. Parnevik.

B-Hop wins a decision in Philly; David Carradine's twin brother confuses everyone

Well, I guess the boxing gods figured one upset was good enough for today. After Danny Green plugged Roy Jones Jr. in the 1st round down in Australia, back stateside Bernard Hopkins took a well earned unanimous decision over Enrique Ornelas. Nothing really spectacular to speak of in this fight, probably because even at the age of 44, Hopkins was just on a different level than his much younger adversary. The opening rounds were typical Hopkins rounds as he started a bit slow, but around the 4th, he began to time Ornelas started dominating. There were flashes from Ornelas, but for every big shot he landed, Hopkins was landing 5 or 6 of his own. By the time the 12th round started, Ornelas was in desperation mode which nearly got him finished himself. Had there been another 10 to 15 seconds in fight, the ref very well may have stopped it.

GAME ON: Pacquiao-Mayweather nearly final **UPDATED**

K-Zone Sports Scoreboard: Optimism-1, Skepticism-0

Just one day after I wrote about the two best boxers in the world preparing to sign on for tune up fights and how I hold fast in my belief that Pacquiao-Mayweather won't happen now, or ever, my skepticism was deemed unfounded. Yahoo! Sports boxing/MMA writer Kevin Iole broke the news that Top Rank promoter Bob Arum is on a flight to Manila, Philippines in an effort to finalize bout agreements with Manny Pacquiao. Floyd Mayweather has already agree to terms on the bout so the only thing standing in the way of the top 2 pound-for-pound boxers meeting on March 13th is Pacquiao.

A couple things...

Wednesday Live Chat

Keith Ballard - Most Confused Man in Sports

The Florida Panthers are finally relevant in the sports world, but it's for all the wrong reasons. Dubbed by ESPN hockey analyst Barry Melrose as one of the dumbest things he's ever seen in the game of hockey, Keith Ballard's physical expression of frustration after allowing a goal took it's toll on his goaltender, Tomas Vokoun. After Atlanta Thrashers forward Ilya Kovalchuk potted a breakaway goal to give his team a 2-0 lead, Ballard attempted to do what we've seen countless players do in the past by smashing his stick on the crossbar. Problem is, he failed horribly and ended up injuring his goalie. The video shows Ballard giving a Prince Fielder effort with his swing which totally missed the post and drilled Vokoun in the head, sending him to the hospital.

Why do I say he's confused? Easy; he clearly forgot who he plays for and who he was for a moment and became a poor man's Marty McSorely. Ballard, who is hero to myself and numerous other hockey fans for putting a well deserved beatdown on resident NHL crybaby Sidney Crosby, will now forever live as the man who samurai chopped his own goaltender. He doesn't have a reputation as a dirty player and is one of the better two way defensemen in the NHL, so to see him do this is rather troubling. What is possibly even more troubling is how many unnecessarily dirty plays and devastating injuries have occurred this season.

While Ballard was leveling his teammate, Alex Ovechkin was adding to his ejection total by laying a knee-on-knee hit on Carolina's Tim Gleason. Those two incidents are coming on the heels of George Laraque kneeing Nikalas Kronwall to injured reserve for 8 weeks, Ovechkin earning an ejection for boarding Buffalo's Patrick Kaleta (which really wasn't in my mind, but my view doesn't hold water against the NHL's), and Kaleta getting ejected in kind for boarding Jared Ross in Philadelphia. For all the talk of eliminating fighting from the game for fear of injury, it would appear that the NHL would be better served to pay attention to the rash of easily preventable injuries by severely punishing players who are involved in incidents like the above plays. That includes Ovechkin; stars should get no preferential treatment (even though they obviously do. see - Evgeni Malkin's instigator penalty in the Stanley Cup last season)

Give Keith Ballard credit for one thing though, he doesn't leave things half done. Instead of checking on his fallen goalie, he finished what he started by eventually destroying his stick on the goal post. Priorities; some people have them, some people don't.

Pac is Back! Manny Pacquiao's next fight is against........Yuri Foreman?

(Yuri looks about as excited as the rest of the world about this potential fight)

Yes boxing fans, the fight everyone has been waiting for may be upon us! The pound-for-pound #1 fighter in the world, Manny Pacquiao (50-3-2, 38 KO), will look to solidify his status as an all time great in March against Floyd Maywe.....wait, what? He's not fighting Mayweather? He's fighting Yuri Foreman?

What?

According to Pacquiao's highly vocal trainer Freddy Roach in an interview with BoxingScene.com, negotiations with Floyd Mayweather have not been going smoothly (shocking, I know) and he's tossing around the idea of his fighter moving up in weight again to challenge for the 154-pound title. Standing between the "Pacman" and his record setting 8th title in different weight classes would be newly crowned WBA junior middleweight champ, Yuri Foreman (28-0, 8 KO). Foreman won the title on the undercard of the Pacquiao-Cotto card by defeating Daniel Santos by decision. Excited yet? No, neither are the guys at Bad Left Hook:

"Pacquiao likely beats Foreman, even giving up a lot of size. He's too fast, Foreman doesn't hit hard, and Manny's just a much, much better fighter. And Pacquiao-Foreman is really a bit of a sham. It's an admitted stab at faux "history" being made. They know Foreman is the exact right matchup.

After all, the fight would be contested for a 154-pound title. How low do you think they'll try to get a catchweight? Foreman has dipped as low as 149 pounds in his career, but by the time this fight rolled around, that will have been almost eight years in the past. In the last three years he hasn't gone below 153 1/2 pounds on the scales.

If they allow it at the full 154-pound weight, they're essentially saying clearly, "This guy can't beat us, and we know it." Cotto had to get down to 145. Manny has never weighed in over 144 for any fight, and by all accounts he walks around at about 150-155 pounds."

That pretty much sums it up. Not to say that Foreman isn't a good fighter, but this fight is basically the definition of "tune up fight". This is pretty much a ploy to get Pacquiao another title and use his new record for division titles to build even more hype for a fight against Mayweather. If what Roach says is true, which isn't a guarantee, and Floyd is stalling until September for the fight against his fighter, there are more interesting fights for Pacquiao other than gift wrapping a history making fight. The idea has been tossed out that if Pacquiao does end up fighting Foreman, barring Andre Berto pulling the upset against Shane Mosley, Mayweather would take on Mosley as his "tune up" for Pacquiao. Again, not to pile on Foreman, but Mosley is a much bigger threat to Mayweather than he is to Pacquiao. With only 8 career knockouts, it's a pretty safe bet that he will bring nothing to the table that should be able to stifle "Pacman".

Let no one say I didn't see this coming. I posted in my live chat last week that the more people talk about Pacquiao-Mayweather as an inevitability, the more I think this fight isn't going to happen this year, if ever. If the Pacquiao-Foreman fight goes forward, there is going to be a lot of talk about Pacquiao trying to pad his win-loss record, Mayweather ducking the fight, and the overall illegitimacy of titles in boxing. I can't say I would blame the pundits if they called out boxing on legitimacy of their titles, because it's clear that getting Pacquiao another belt for his trophy case is the only reason this fight is discussed. More details if they emerge......

p.s. Roy Jones Jr.-Danny Green and Bernard Hopkins-Enrique Ornelas will be broadcast on Versus this Wednesday. If both RJJ and Hopkins win, expect a rematch to be made that will involve a massive amount of hilarious trash talk, leading up to a horribly lackluster fight.

***UPDATE*** Bad Left Hook has posted a rumor that Bob Arum may attempt to get Floyd Mayweather a fight in the UK against Matthew Hatton, Ricky's brother. So much for Mayweather taking a more challenging tune up fight than Pacquiao. Matthew Hatton's a decent fighter, but not even in the same universe as Mayweather. The legality of that fight should be questioned, because it would be borderline assault.